U.S. Chamber economist: Get ready for another recession - Baltimore Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyy grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Martyg Regalia. He predicts the currenty economic downturn will endaround September, but the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallyu does after a recession, Regalia said. however, looms as a potential problem because of thefederall government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amountt of dollars pumped into the economy by the Federao Reserve, he said.
If this stimulus is not unwound once the econom beginsto recover, higher interest rates couldf choke off improvement in the housing markey and business investment, he said. “The economy has got to be runnint on its own by the middle ofnext year,” Regalia Almost every major inflationary period in U.S. histort was preceded by heavy debt levels, he noted. The chancese of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairmab of theFederal Reserve, Regalia said. If President Barackj Obama appoints his economic adviser Larry Summere to chairthe Fed, that woulsd signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longe time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaa administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in February. Meanwhile, more than half of smalll business owners expect the recession to last at least anothertwo years, according to a survey of Intuit Payrolkl customers. But 61 percenf expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on theird own abilities, but bearishb on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketinhg for Intuit Employee Management Solutions.
“Even in the gloomiesg economy there are opportunitiesto seize.” A separat survey of small business owners by Discovedr Financial Services found that 57 percent thoughgt the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the econom was improving. More than half planned to decreases spending on business development in the nextsix